Winning the new cloud war — hopes and predictions for the advanced air mobility sector

For those not aware, there is a new cloud war happening, but it’s not with big tech. It’s with aircraft manufacturers and OEM’s (Original Equipment Manufacturers), vertiport developers, and governments vying to win in the market of advanced air mobility (AAM).

AAM and its subset UAM (urban air mobility) is the broad category that includes the emerging market of on-demand air taxis that takeoff and land vertically (like a helicopter or drone) and are mostly all-electric, short-range (20–150 miles), and carry 2–6 passengers at a time, depending on the manufacturer.

Initially these air taxis will be piloted, but the ultimate goal is for unmanned or autonomous flight to make them as efficient and affordable as possible.

Right now, the AAM sector is a wild frontier with everyone racing to be first to market and/or category king (which we know are not the same thing, right Christopher Lochhead?). The start of commercial operations varies by manufacturer and location and ranges anywhere from 1–2 years away to 2030.

So far, for the players in the market, open discussions are being encouraged across the industry. Maybe it’s unfair to the players to call this a war, and maybe instead it’s a marathon, but I expect the heat to pick up soon.

Several manufacturers have already prototyped and tested their air taxis. Each one has their own unique design optimized for comfort, load carrying, travel distance, speed, noise reduction, and other factors, using fixed or pivoting rotors or jets, or some combination thereof.

At the same time, several companies are working on the ground infrastructure and operations to accommodate air taxis and drones, called vertiports. These will be located somewhere at the intersection of market demand and regulatory approval (by agencies such as the FAA and EASA), including existing rooftops, new dedicated facilities, airports, and rural locations.

In addition to regulatory agencies, national and city governments are also in the conversation because of AAM’s huge economic, social, and environmental potential. Several major cities are trailblazing in the sector (including London, Paris, Munich, Singapore, Dubai, and Miami) while others are taking a wait-and-see approach.

The AAM market is estimated to be worth… a lot. Deloitte estimates it at $115 billion annually in the US alone by 2035, which includes both passengers and cargo operations. However, there are still many hurdles to making AAM a regular part of our everyday lives, including:

• Market awareness and viability — Who’s going to pay and how much? Which areas and cities make sense to operate in? How do we instill trust in the industry?
• Regulation — How do we make the industry safe and neighborhood-friendly? What are the flight paths?
• Aircraft technology and operations — How do we make our aircraft as safe as possible? How will the network work? How do we eventually get to unmanned operations?
• Ground infrastructure (vertiports) and operations — Where are the vertiports located? How can we provide a seamless experience? How do we minimize the costs of operation?

These various hurdles are being addressed through a multitude of different conversations between all the various stakeholders, including the likes of NASA lending their support and expertise, and many partnerships are in place so far.

For example, last December Joby Aviation acquired Uber Elevate with undisclosed financial terms, but the deal includes a capital injection into Joby and integration between their respective apps. Other companies have hinted at having multiple deals in the works around the world, but details are being kept close to the chest.

Nevertheless, I am excited about the AAM market from a design and customer perspective and want to see it succeed. And with that said, here are some thoughts around what I can see happening, or would like to see happen, as the market evolves:

There will be market consolidation.

This one seems the most obvious. It just doesn’t seem practical or sustainable for one carrier and taxi type to operate an entire region’s air mobility sector. If the service is poor or overpriced, has artificial constraints, or the company suffers setbacks, then the market suffers.

Vertiports are also affected for the same reasons. Designing vertiports around a single carrier has huge risks to the utility of the vertiport design, branding, operations, and infrastructure. Vertiports will have to be designed around multiple carriers and operations, and generally be flexible as the market evolves.

I’m not quite sure how this will shake out, but if I were in a government position and part of the AAM discussion, I would be thinking proactively about standardized, agnostic, and resilient design for the AAM ecosystem. Governments can learn from airport operators who have been pushing back against proprietary solutions and being locked into single vendor agreements, at least on the technology side.

Don’t turn vertiports into mini-airports.

I will personally slap the first person who shows a MacDonald’s restaurant in a vertiport rendering. Seriously, if vertiports devolve into places where you still have to kill time eating an overpriced and stale croissant, they will have failed. I think the industry sees that already, stressing a quick and seamless experience across both digital and physical domains, but the temptation will come to offset operational costs through non-aeronautical revenue.

That’s not to say vertiports can’t be places to spend time (I’ll have a massage in the time I saved, thank you very much), but we should ensure that design doesn’t devolve into trying to design the best places for people to wait. The traditional airport typology, especially the gate holdroom and the retail-driven business model as a necessary source of revenue, needs a re-think because it prevents airports today from being more innovative.

Where vertiports can be exciting and groundbreaking is being integrated into the fabric of cities and rural areas. In cities, they should become part of a larger strategy of increasing the convenience, amenities, and attractiveness of neighborhoods. Instead of bringing amenities into the vertiport, think about profit or revenue sharing agreements with local small businesses. The more seamless, integrated, and authentic, the better.

Optimize vertiports for airport connections.

Hopefully I’m not talking out of both sides of my mouth here, but I would like to see vertiports optimized for connecting people to the nearest airport. In other words, functioning as an extension of the airport as an alternative way to get to and from their long-haul flight.

I do see the value in traveling between cities within a region, but I would also definitely pay good money to replace the traditional airport experience with a more comfortable and personalized one. And if I can divest my bags and do all my pre-flight checks, even better.

At the same time, this is a prime opportunity for carriers to offer unique experiences when people are really looking for one, and for governments to have more tourists out in the city spending money rather than killing time in a terminal building. Win-win-win!

Airline partnerships are a smart play.

With regard to market awareness and viability of AAM, it seems one of the best plays for air taxi manufacturers is to partner with existing airlines who already have brand awareness and a safety record.

I know Lufthansa is working with several air taxi manufacturers in various capacities (training, information systems), but I’m really talking about airline-operated air taxis. I would feel much more comfortable flying an air taxi operated by Emirates Airlines (and Emirates pilots) than a startup that has only been in business for a few years. This puts their reputation at stake, but it’s a fair trade-off for the increased revenues and new market opportunities.

Moreover, major airlines already have the infrastructure for ticketing and route planning, and it would be more convenient for customers to book a single integrated ticket from, say, lower Manhattan to central London.

Airport partnerships make a lot of sense.

With regard to vertport development and operations, engaging the expertise and resources of existing airport operators also makes a lot of sense, as Lilium and Volocopter are doing with their planned networks.

There is so much to say here because engaging existing airport operators will offer benefits to safety, security, and overall operations. However, I think the real value proposition is cost efficiency. This is because AAM operations can be networked and remotely managed within a larger existing operation, which includes things like fire and emergency services, security, building automation, IT, baggage handling, and logistics.

Airport partnerships may even become necessary when you start considering market consolidation and connecting travelers to their long-haul flights at major airports.

Tourism businesses will invest in their own vertiports.

Another great use case for vertiports is in isolated areas by companies in the tourism sector. If vertiport infrastructure can be easily deployed and operated, I can see some of the bigger operators leasing and branding their own (at least on the receiving side) to get tourists more quickly and conveniently to their vacation spots.

For example, Emirates Group, the holding company that owns Emirates Airlines, also owns Arabian Adventures, a tour operator specializing in desert safaris just outside of Dubai. Air taxi service would enable Emirates customers to enjoy a desert safari within minutes of landing during their lay-over.

Such vertiports could be used for hard to reach destinations, peak travel seasons, as a sustainable alternative to other forms of transportation, or simply to make it easy for visitors to visit. I can see vertiports at resorts and wineries, for example.

The master systems integrator plays a key role.

Building one new airport is hard enough, but building dozens of them at the same time, on the same network, is going to be especially challenging. The Master Systems Integrator (MSI) is already commonplace on large development projects, but I see them being necessary for vertiport development.

With vertiports being spread across multiple jurisdictions, with likely different developers, contractors, designers, and third party interfaces, someone has to make all of these operations work together. At the same time, a solution for Los Angeles can be applied to Dallas, Dubai, and London because the code requirements, hardware, and infrastructure will be largely the same.

For MSI’s like Honeywell and Siemens, I think a smart play is to start pre-integrating and pre-packaging their vertiport solutions if they haven’t already. Cost certainty and performance are going to be key attributes to vertiport development, and this is one market where international standards can be leveraged for value and profit. Equipment rooms can be containerized, and vertiport systems can be packaged as one solution ready to deploy.

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In conclusion, I’m inspired by all the hard work and innovation happening in the AAM space, which feels like a mission-driven community. While there is still a lot of work to do, AAM is an exciting frontier with so much economic, social, and environmental potential. I hope the winners that come out ahead do so because they were the smartest about bringing the most value to the ecosystem.

If you enjoyed this article, I encourage you to share it.

Jonathan

Originally published at https://www.linkedin.com.